What’s the fate of the Euro?

A good mate of mine from Australia asked me this…

“I’d be interested to hear your thoughts thoughts on the Euro dollar ”if” Greece leaves the Euro on the 18th of june (17th is their govt elections) Do you think the Euro D. will increase/decrease in value if Greece leaves the Eurozone?”

I’ve  received the same question from quite a few other traders as well so I thought I would weigh in and give my two cents for what it’s worth.  For starters my opinion is worthless, here’s why…

Without a crystal ball there is no way to know with any certainty what the Euro will do.  You see, if Greece leaves it could result in wide spread panic as traders fear this will ripple through Spain and other countries. On the other hand, traders may feel great relief that they finally have all the cards on the table and as a result a huge rally results.  Another result could happen… The Euro is stuck in a trading range due to traders not willing to take a serious position until more info on the health of the EU is revealed.

You know what?  None of the analyzing or speculating really matters because… As a trader our job is to simply trade what the market throws at us.  This takes the worry and pressure off trying to second guess what the market may or may not do.

The bottom-line is everything you need to know about the fate of the Euro will be revealed in the charts. If traders don’t like the news that comes out, then you’ll see the price pattern break down and start to make lower swing highs and lower swing lows.  This is your cue to look for an entry point and to ride the wave lower.  On the other hand if the Euro starts making a series of higher highs and higher lows then simply look to catch a ride to the upside.

It’s really that simple, so don’t waste too much trying to figure this out because it really could go either way.


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